Earlier this week I came across a curious fact courtesy of one of my favourite podcasts, No Such Thing As A Fish. According to a recent survey, nearly half of American men feel confident that they can land a plane in an emergency. This reminded me of a TED talk by Tali Sharot I came across years ago, which reveals that most people believe they're better than average drivers, most people believe they're more attractive than average, and perhaps the clincher, most people believe they're more honest and more modest than the average Joe or Jane. This highlights something interesting about the human psyche, the idea that we often believe we're in a better position than others. Take one of the above statements, for example, that most people believe they're better drivers than average. This is statistically improbable, therefore most people are wrong. This begs the question, what is it that compels us to believe we rank higher than most on positive traits and attributes, and lower than most on negative ones?
Tali Sharot's research has shed light on this phenomenon, known as the optimism bias. This is the idea that our brains are wired to make us believe there's hope on the horizon, that good things are just around the corner, and that those good things are meant for us, even when the odds are stacked against us. Now, a sceptical person might say, speak for yourself, no one out here is optimistic about the future, no one on the streets is looking on the sunny side of life. In the face of global warming, a cost of living crisis, sky-high inflation, warfare and mass displacement of people, who the hell can afford to be optimistic?
Well, we might not openly admit to being optimistic, it might not come through in our daily language and conversations, but it is represented in our actions. We're still procreating as a species, still having babies even though there might not be a stable, peaceful, conducive planet on which future generations will live. In the face of high interest rates and a housing market that might be on the precipice of a crash, mortgage applications are as high as ever, especially from first-time buyers. We’re still going about our daily lives, planning for the future where we can, booking holidays months in advance, saving and investing to put our future selves in better financial positions than our present selves, despite the doom and gloom that permeate our screens in the form of “breaking news”. These are all optimistic behaviours. These are all actions that suggest we believe we'll be fine irrespective of what the future holds.
The optimism bias is particularly salient on the individual level. We're more optimistic about our own prospects compared to the prospects of everyone else. For instance, even if we believe that bad things are happening in the world, we remain optimistic about our own prospects and we elevate these prospects over those of others. We're better than average drivers, because we're good, and others are bad, or so we believe. We're okay to have kids and buy houses, but it might not be a good time for others, or so we believe. This explains why, for example, when faced with job adverts where we barely meet the requirements or even fail to come close, we still go on to apply. For what it's worth, this point is more applicable to men than women.
This is all quite odd, don't you think? It feels like an evolutionary flaw. The last thing we want to do is act like the proverbial ostrich with its head in the sand while the world burns around us. This begs the question, why do we have this optimism bias? What is it even good for? To answer these questions, we only need to consider the alternative. Would you want to live in a world where you know with absolute certainty that things can only go downhill from here? Would you want to have kids if you accept the fact that their future will be dire? Would you want to buy a house if you have little or no hope of staying on top of your mortgage payments? I don't know about you, but I know my answer is a firm "no" to the above questions. Is it any wonder that our minds play these tricks on us, to get us to lean perhaps too far towards the optimistic end of the spectrum, even when there's evidence to the contrary?
The simple answer to this question of why we're overly optimistic is this: we are optimistic because we need to be. We have evolved to be optimistic, because without optimism, without hope for the future, we wouldn't be able to do the things we need to do to survive today, and if we don't survive today, we won't be here tomorrow, and that'll be the end of our species. Our ancestors that erred on the optimistic side were more likely to live long enough to have offspring, and thus pass on these traits to said offspring, and hence, here we are, aeons later in the 21st century, overly optimistic and all the better for it.
Now, there's another question I need to ask. You might even recognise this one if you're a regular reader of this blog. What does any of this have to do with art? The answer is…everything.
It is a common trope in Hollywood, the idea that every year, young, bright-eyed hopefuls move to Los Angeles in the hopes of actualising their dreams of making it to the big screen. Only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of these hopefuls end up making it big time. The numbers are truly staggering. There's a similar mass movement to Nashville, Tennessee, in this case for music hopefuls, and to New York, for the theatre, dance, and performing arts dreamers. Again, the odds of making it big time are infinitesimal. On this side of the pond, there are similar (albeit smaller) migrations to the big cities – London, Manchester, Glasgow and the like – to be closer to the action, to keep the hopes and dreams alive, the hopes of earning a living making music or starring in a theatre play. We're told the odds of "making it" are minuscule, infinitesimal, and non-existent, so why bother? Why not get a "proper job"? Why not opt for some stability? There are millions of talented people, we’re told, and the odds are against us, so why keep at it? Every artist I know has been posed a question like this by a well-meaning loved one.
Well, I'm here to suggest that we should bother. We should keep at it. We should lean into this optimism bias, however irrational it may be, because the pursuit of artistic endeavours isn't a zero-sum game. Making it to the big screen or getting on the radio or being featured in the main publications need not be the end goal. The fact that there are many artists and few of those hallowed spots at the "top" shouldn't preclude us from pursuing our artistic endeavours. There's so much more to the pursuit of art than getting to some expected or anticipated goal or destination. I'm a huge proponent of art for the sake of art, this is a hill I'm willing to die on. We should be optimistic enough to pursue our art, to aspire for great things, yes, but we should also keep on the journey and stay the course because art is its own reward.
PS: Just a reminder that my latest single, Feels Like Rain is out now, everywhere. You can listen to it on several platforms. Please share it with a friend, share it with your social networks, and consider subscribing to the newsletter (below), my YouTube channel, or wherever else you listen to music.